Seismic Recurrence Intervals and Timing of Aseismic Subduction Inferred From Emerged Corals and Reefs of the Central Vanuatu (New Hebrides) Frontal Arc

The recogmuon and dating of corals that have been killed by tectonic uplift allow us to date paleoseismic uplifts in the Vanuatu island arc. We recognize corals that record paleouplifts by their similarity to those known to have died during contemporary sudden uplifts and date them (1) by counting annual coral growth bands (only if f:rt of the coral is alive at the time of collection) or (2) by newly developed techniques for obtaining 0Th ages by mass spectrometry. The mass spectrometric method produces isotopic ages with precisions of ±3 to ±9 years (20') in the 0-HlOO years B.P. time range. The 230Th ages in this time range appear to be accurate. Samples whose ages are known by counting coral growth bands give 23on ages that are indistinguishable from their growth band ages. By dividing the average increment of uplift for the latest Holocene uplifts by the mean Holocene uplift rate, we can estimate average seismic uplift recurrence intervals for the past 6000 years. The results for each of four central Vanuatu arc segments are (1) North Santo emerged 1.2 m in 1866 A.D. and 0.6 m 107 years later in 1973 A.D. The average coseismic uplift of 0.9 m and mean Holocene uplift rate of 4.3 mm yr1 suggest a longer recurrence interval of 212 years. (2) South Santo emerged 0.29 m in 1946 and 0.26 m 19 years later in 1965, including the related 1971 event. Here the mean Holocene uplift rate is 5.5 mm yr1• The uplift data suggest a longer average recurrence interval of about 51 years. (3) North Malekula emerged 1.23 m near 1729 A. D. and 1.05 m 236 years later in 1965. The mean Holocene uplift rate of 2.7 mm yr·1 and mean coseismic uplift of 1.14 m for dated events suggest a longer recurrence interval of 422 years. (4) Part of southernmost Malekula has uplifted continuously or episodically by about 0.35 m from about 1957 until at least mid-1983 A.D. The maximum uplift of 2.7 mm yr1 occurs near a nest of small earthquakes. Both the earthquakes and rapid uplift suggest that interplate slip beneath south Malekula may be continuous, rather than episodic. Episodes of 0.35 m uplift would have to recur every 130 years to maintain the 2.7 mm yr·1 uplift rate. In contrast, we find no evidence of interseismic vertical movements for the other three blocks. The most reasonable interpretation of these resuhs is that the seismic recurrence intervals and processes for accommodation of slip are quite different on adjacent arc segments. We have used the most widely accepted momentmagnitude relationship to evaluate the accumulated seismic slip caused by large earthquakes occurring since 1920. In all four arc segments this analysis suggests that the seismically radiated moments account for less than one-third to one-tenth of the slip associated with plate convergence. The similarity between the paleoseismic record of uplifts and the contemporary record of coseismic uplifts suggests that this analysis can be generalized to times before 1920. For the northern three segments of central Vanuatu, aseismic slip probably occurs in the same years as large earthquakes because the contemporary coral record records uplifts only in years having large historic earthquakes. This suggests that aseismic slip is not continuous and does not occur at rates which vary slowly over the course of the earthquake cycle. The soulh Santo segment may have the highest proportion of seismic slip because the mean recurrence interval of 51 years is shortest and the mean Holocene uplift rate of at least 5.5 mm yr·1 is the fastest.